I was talking to the lawyer of a big publishing house the other day. We were discussing ebooks, and he made the claim that ebooks were just a fad, and one that is dying off at that. Obviously, this surprised me, so I asked him about his sources. “Sector publications,” he said, somewhat vaguely.
He was right: several publications have been making similar claims in the last 3 years. I even posted about the supposed shrinking of the US book market back in 2015. But our chat made me think it might be time to see what has happened since.
The Error In The Method
It all started with a 2015 Nielsen Pubtrack estimate which said that 6% fewer ebooks had been sold in the US in 2014. A subsequent Ink, Bits & Pixels post convincingly showed that Nielsen’s estimate of 223 million ebooks sold in the US was completely erroneous. Ink, Bits & Pixels cites not one but two sources which say that the US ebook market is at least twice as large as that.
The first source is the pseudonymous Data Guy (yes, the one behind the famous Author Earnings Report). His calculations suggested that around 513 million ebooks were sold in the US ebook market in 2014 – twice as many as Pubtrack estimates.
The second source is more eponymous: the Association of American Publishers itself. Their annual estimates of the US book market estimated 510 million ebooks sold in the US in 2014 (much closer to Data Guy’s estimate). Yes, the AAP says that the US ebook market is over twice as large as Nielsen had claimed. It turns out that Nielsen widely over-estimated its ability to track the US ebook market.
Nielsen’s number is so far off because it thinks that the 30 publishers it tracks represent 85% of the market when in reality they represent around half that number.
What About Today?
This trend continued in 2015 and 2016, as their latest author earnings report shows. US trade print sales rose in 2015 and 2016 because in 2015 “agency” contracts eliminated Amazon’s discounting of ebooks from large traditional publishers. So, in mid-2015, Amazon raised discounts on their print books instead. Which means that the celebrated increase of print was really publishers celebrating Amazon gobbling up Barnes & Nobles, Target, Walmart, and other brick-and-mortar bookstores.
However, in mid-2016, Amazon decreased discounts on print books back to the 2014 levels. As a direct result, print sales immediately dropped, leading to an increase of only 3% to 2015 (compared to an original forecast of 6%). This was actually lower than Amazon’s ebook sales, which grew by 4%.
Enter The Indies
Even that, however, isn’t taking account of Indie ebooks and Kindle Unlimited. When someone includes these, it emerges that ebooks sales are, in fact, over twice as large–485 million instead of 221 million! The two slides below reflect that fact: the top one show the numbers when one excludes Indies (as Nielsen does), while the bottom one has included both Indie sales and Kindle Unlimited ones.
This is not a statistical error; it’s enough to completely change (dare I say, end?) the conversation about the supposed ebook’s decline. As Author Earnings argues, the real question nowadays isn’t Print vs. Digital: it’s Brick & Mortar vs. Online. In other words, Amazon vs. the world.
Charles Yallowitz said:
I was just talking to someone about this. Technically they were talking to me and asking if it was time to quit. Good to see the facts on this and I shouldn’t be surprised. Indies tend to be forgotten in these studies.
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Nicholas C. Rossis said:
Sometimes it does feel like the big publishers are pressing their hands against their ears going, “la la la la.”
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Charles Yallowitz said:
Don’t forget them stomping their feet to make extra noise. They really don’t want to pay attention to the indies, do they? When was the last time an indie got picked up by a traditional publisher?
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The Story Reading Ape said:
Reblogged this on Chris The Story Reading Ape's Blog.
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K. D. Dowdall said:
Yes, I agree, Indies do tend to be forgotten, consider all the writers whose novels have been published as Indie on WordPress. K D 🙂
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Nicholas C. Rossis said:
That’s a great point. Not all reading material is in the form of books anymore.
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K. D. Dowdall said:
Thank you, Nicholas! The truth is that every writer I know and book club groups bring there
kindle with them. It is much less expensive to get a kindle book, often for free. I often buy the kindle version and the if I really like the book I buy the print version. K D 🙂
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Nicholas C. Rossis said:
I make a point of offering all of my books free on Kindle if you buy the print edition. I like the idea of offering people a choice 🙂
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Jacquie Biggar said:
As a reader of an indeterminate age 🙂 e-books are more convenient than print, though I still have my collector library.
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Nicholas C. Rossis said:
Sigh… I wish I could enlarge print books’ font size!
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Michelle Morrison said:
I’m not the expert on statistics or anything, but sales do have a way of going up and down, and it does depend on where the information is coming from. Competition is an issue too as you pointed out. I prefer lovely print books that I can hold to be truthful. I love my Kindle too because it’s so portable. There are some cases where the print books might be cheaper than the e-book, but that is when the local library becomes a good option. Whatever the case, as long as I can read the book, I’m happy. 😀
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Nicholas C. Rossis said:
My feelings exactly! Plus, “lies, bloody lies, and statistics” 🙂
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kimwrtr said:
Reblogged this on Kim's Author Support Blog.
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Micki Peluso said:
Thanks for your thoughts, Nicholas. I can always trust your research.
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Nicholas C. Rossis said:
Thank you so much, Micki! 🙂
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franhunne4u said:
I think quite a lot of people have both – books they read on an e-reader (not necessarily only a kindle, just Friday I saw someone on the tram who read a German bookshop-e-reader, like the one I gave to my sister for Christmas) and books they love in print.
Commuters love e-readers, as it is easier to transport and doesn’t take up that much space while reading, too. Travellers (holiday or business) like e-readers, as they aren’t as heavy and take not up as much place in their luggage.
But on public transport (which I use on workdays) I still see a lot of people with pocket books. One even had taken care to wrap the book in a newspaper – don’t know if it was to save the book from damage or to hide the title …
I still do not have an e-reader and I am not yet tempted to get one, as I do not travel long enough to make reading a feasible choice. I carry a book with me if I just miss a bus or tram and have to wait 10 minutes for the next.
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Nicholas C. Rossis said:
A fair point 🙂
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V.M.Sang said:
I have both. I like ebooks because I can carry a lot of them on holiday and it doesn’t fill my suitcase. If nothing else, there will always be that market.
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Nicholas C. Rossis said:
Good point 🙂
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OIKOS™-Redaktion said:
Reblogged this on Die Erste Eslarner Zeitung – Aus und über Eslarn, sowie die bayerisch-tschechische Region!.
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tracikenworth said:
Interesting. Thanks for the facts!
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Nicholas C. Rossis said:
Thank you for reading, Traci 🙂
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Don Massenzio said:
Reblogged this on Author Don Massenzio.
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artsny99 said:
It’s just mind-boggling how misleading any incomplete information can be!
Thank you for brightening the day with the full picture for the state of e-book market and readership!
Tatyana at http://www.arts-ny.com
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Nicholas C. Rossis said:
Thank you so much, Tatyana 🙂
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